[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: Russia Ukrain war ,sudden reversal of American policy and its impact in Geopolitics[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: The world in general and European continent in particular held its breath again on 22nd February 2022 when Russia launched a surprise attack on Ukrainian targets with a huge army and airforce to overpower Ukrain.Russia justified that unilateral aggression to protect the Russian people and also to defend two breakway provinces Luhansk and Donetsk .These two Russian speaking provinces declared independence from Ukrain and Russia immediately recognized these provinces and sent its armed forces to assert Russia's sovereignty.So a devastating war returned to Europe after 1945,when the Second world war had officially ended with more than 6crore casualties.The Russian attack was to occupy main strategically important places like Kursk and Kherson areas of Ukrain and also to encircle Kiev ,capital of Ukrain.Initially Russian advances were swift and it appeared that Ukrainian resistance would collapse within few weeks.[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: The western countries immediately condemned that aggression and vowed to take appropriate measures to defend Ukrain.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zellenshky appealed to the western countries like USA,UK,France,Germany for immediate military aids to fight the Russian military Juggernaut.Russia again used its propaganda machines to justify its attack as to prevent rise of Neo Nazis in Ukrain and also launched massive cyber attacks.Militarily there is no comparisons between Russia and Ukrain.But Ukrain was not a pushover.Ukraine went for a huge mobilization of troops and arrival of huge western weaponry was giving Russian President Valdimir Putin a tough time.From February 2022 to December 2024,Russia occupied nearly 20% areas of Ukrain but both Russia and Ukrain suffered heavy casualties and it is extremely difficult to give an accurate figures of total number of casualties.There are no independent sources to verify it.The war is now in a stalemate ,though Russians are gaining some grounds in Kursk .Since both Russia and Ukrain are short of menpower ,the North Koreans are fighting for Russia and Some British and other western volunteers though in limited numbers arrived to fight the Russians.Both countries are heavily dependent on the strength of Conscripts .[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: The big question is why did Russia launch such a full scale invasion ,that too against a country with whom Russia has a long standing geo-starategic relations and until 1992 both were part of the USSR.The answer is Russia under Vladimir Putin is emerging as a major power in the world after disintegration of USSR and Mr.Putin is setting his eyes to make Russia as the next superpower to challenge American dominance in the world.Vladimir Putin is a dictator of Russia and with no political opposition forces in Russia to challenge him,he is now the next Joseph Stalin of Russia.Ukraine is always regarded by Russia as part of its strategic depth to secure Russia's eastern flanks ,and Russia is not in a position to concede it.Ukrainian soil is world's most fertile soil.Russia always would like to see Ukrain as a buffer zone or remain within its sphere of influences.[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: Ukrain under President Voldomyr Zellenshky is rapidly marching towards western block ,that is led by USA and Ukrain applied for NATO membership after Russian invasion.Meanwhile after Russia's attack ,Finland and Sweden applied for NATO memberships and both countries were admitted in NATO.The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was a military alliance formed in 1949 to protect western liberal and Capitalist country from Soviet Union's attack ,it was an alliances of western states to check spread of communism in Europe.USSR also created a block of Eastern European Communist states ,known as the Warshaw Pact in 1955 as a checkmate against NATO.Most Warshaw Pact members were Soviet satellite states.After disintegration of USSR in 1991,it was also disbanded in 1991.But NATO was not disbanded and most former warshaw pact countries joined NATO,the former Baltic Soviet republics ,Lithuania ,Latvia and Estonia already joined the NATO.Article 5 of the NATO charter authorizes a joint military response if a NATO state is attacked .Russia is always suspicious of NATO,and the ultimate objective of NATO is to encircle Russia and to put maximun pressures ob Russia.So expansion of NATO is a big concern for Russia.Until 2014,Ukrainian Presidents were pro Russian and a massive anti Russian protests in Ukrain triggered the alarm bell in Kremlin,Moscow and Russian special forces soldiers annexed Crimea in march 2014.Russia is providing weapons and other logistical support to peo Russian rebels of Ukrain to fight the anti Russian forces of Ukrain[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: The Russian backed separatists and Pro -Ukrainian Government forces had been fighting for a long period of time even before Russian invasion in 2022.In july 2014,a Malaysian airline passenger plane was shoot down in east Ukrainian sky with 283 passengers by a Russian made Buk missile .That plane was shoot down by separatists,though Moscow officially denied any involvement .The previous American regime under Joe Biden was pursuing an anti Russian policy by providing arms worth of Billion dollars including Abram Tanks and Javelin anti tank guided miisiiles.Britain also gave Challenger tanks and other small weapons to fight the Russians.The western Countries imposed sanctions on Russia to cripple Russian economy.It is estimated that over one million people died in Russian Ukrain war ,with several million were displaced,a catastrophic war since Second World war in Europe.But the western leaders have no roadmap to end that bloodshed,their sole policy is to teach Russia a lesson or weaken Russian state.It is true that Russia didn't achieve the desired result and any prolonged conflict will only create more humanitarian crisis in Europe,and a long conflict will make European countries a kind of vassal states of USA,and it will further worsen the security scenario of Europe.[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: Russia is the legitimate successor of former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics,(USSR),which is known as State Succession under International Law.Ukrain ,being the second largest former Soviet Republic is also a successor. Communism collapsed in Europe ,especially in Russia,unfortunately the Proletarian dictatorship is being replaced by dictatorship of oligarchy in Russia.Corruption ,poor human development index,very little freedom of Press,Gun culture ,diminishing birth rate are crippling Russian state.Russia still possess a huge arsenal of active nuclear warheads with a large number of hypersonic Intercontinental ballistic missiles ,capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads,which are posing a big threat to the very existence of our planet .Under no circumstances ,military might of Russia be underestimated .History is the evidence of this fact.The wester power must know this fact that Russia cannot be destroyed like Iraq or Afghanistan.Western Countries instead of weakening Russia must try to make Russia a liberal Democratic state.Russians had the bitter experiences of authortarian rule of Bolsheviks or Communists.Wester power must understand Russia's security concerns by not expanding NATO.American ceasefire proposa during President Jo Bidden's tenure was quite unrealistic.It is also true that Russians might have committed war crimes,but now it is beyond anyone's capacity to constitute a Nuremberg like Tribunal to try war criminals.Russia - Ukrain war is a major failure of the United Nations Organization (UNO) ,especially of the security Council to maintain world's peace.That war could have been avoided through diplomacy.But western power's policy of creating an iron curtain from Baltic to black sea to strangle Russia is to some extent responsible for this war.[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: The newly elected President of USA decided to reverse the anti Russian policy of Jo Bidden Administration .Trump administration's decision to halt American weapons to Ukrain is the first step to put maximum pressure on Ukrain to sign an armistice according to the Russian terms and Conditions .Russians ceasefire proposal is mainly based on four points.[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: The first condition is that Ukrain must completely withdraw from the territories it had occupied ,Russia already occupied neary one fifth of Ukrainian territories of East Ukrain ,and Russian troops and Ukrainians are still fighting in that regions.Sometime Russians advance and Ukrainian troops also launched several counter offensives and the result is the loss of human lives and destruction of infrastructures .So Ukrainian state must withdraw.Secondly Ukrain must accept Russian sovereignty on the three provinces Luhansk,Donestk and some other parts of East Ukraine .Thirdly Ukrain must not try to become a member of NATO.The western power must give an assurance that Ukrain would not be admitted in NATO to threaten Russia's security.Fourthly,the western sanctions on Russia be lifted.[3/18, 7:11 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: Now, the Trump adiministration main focus is the Indo Pacific region of Asia.America's main policy is maintain its hold in Asia pacific region.Though China is emerging a potential competitor to USA in this region,but the USA has many advantages like having major allies like Japan,South Korea,Philippine ,Vietnam,Indonesia ,Australia ,New Zealand,Taiwan etc to contain China.Donald Trump is concerned about the security of Europe.Now the major European countries like Great Britain,France,Germany and Italy ,Spain must create an alternative alliance or a pan European union defense forces to defend the Europe instead of relying on America.But India must not join any such block ,must follow the policy of Starategic autonomy.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Judicial Conundrum in India

Recently one fire incident in the official resident of Justice Yashwanta Varma led to recovery of crores of burnt notes not only  shocking but also shook people's confidence in higher Judiciary as an infallible institution .One store room of justice Yashwanta Sinha was caught fire while he was not in his resident,and fire brigade came to extinguish fire and crores of burnt notes were recovered.Justice Varma was not in Delhi for any kind of comments at that time.Once he was a contacted ,he immediately denied his involvement in that incident rather he alleged that it was a conspiracy to tarnish his image.The Chief Justice Of India constituted a high powered committe ,consisting of two Chief Justices of High Courts and one sitting judge of a High Court.to enquire the alleged recovery of money.The Supreme Court Collegium recommended his immediate  transfer to Allahabad High Court ,which triggered a hugh protest initiated by Allahabad Bar Association against that transfer,that Alla...
Read more

Hungarian revolution of 1956Is Revolution was also known as the Hungarian uprising, an attempted Rebellion against the communist government , that came into existence after the World War II. Hungry was an axis ally of Nazi Germany. The USSR occupied Hungary and April 28 government was established. Hungary became a satellite state of USSR. Soviet government was actually a totalitarian government. Hungarian people are descendants of Slavic and Huns. In disrespect remember the cruel rule Attila the Hun. The Hungerian revolution of lasted for l 15 days, until it was crushed by Soviet tanks. Several thousands hungarians lost their lives m several hundred Russians also lost their lives.On 23rd of October 1956, some University students appealed to the civilian population to protest against Russian authoritarian rule the domination of USSR in its geopolitical interest. At that time, Hungary was ruled by a Stalinist government. The students demanded reform on 16 points, but all the students were detained by security guards. The Hungarian people rose against the Communist Party and the secret police of Hungary. And the local communists and secret policemen were executed. A new government was formed under Imrey Negi, who was the liberal man. Under his leadership hungry had withdrawn from Warshaw pact. The new government agreed to hold new election, hungry was heading towards democracy.Initially the USSR agreed negotiate with the new government and accordingly delete Army withdrew. Russians apprehended Hungary embrace the Western block live by USA would be a big threat two dog communist block. So the Russians betrayed the hungarians and hungry was invaded by several Russian divisions. The Hungarian Army was no match before the might of Russian army and after Fierce resistance the hungarians were defeated. The free hungarians were expecting Western help but that did not come. Finally the new government was rendered useless the leaders were arrested and executive latter. The communist government again was installed in Hungary and hungry again became is satellite state of USSR . The Communist rule finally collapse in 1989 after destruction of Berlin Wall. Now Hungary is a Democratic state.

Read more

[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: A K Gopalan v The State(1950,S.C.R.88) was a momentous case in the Constitutional history of India.Any discussion/ lecture on the Constitutional law is incomplete without first examining this case, whether critically or analytically.This case was decided at a time When the Country got independence from British rule and The Constitution of India had come into force,and more than it , for the first timea chapter on Fundamental Rights had been incorporated in the Constitution .The Supreme Court got a golden opportunity to interpret the Article 19,21 and 22 expansively against Executive or legislative power of the state.[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: Brief Fact of the case-A K Gopalan,a radical leftist of the Madras Province was detained under the Preventive Detention Act ,1950,and in fact he was detained for several times under the Act.Under Entry 9 of Union list ,the Parliament has the power to enact law on Preventive Detention.Though Preventive Detention is an anathema in modern time,it was justified as a necessary evil to protect the unity and integrity of the state.Even in Britain and America it was used only during the war time ,that too against suspected enemy aliens[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: A K Gopalan filed a habeas Corpus writ petition under Article 32 of the Constitution and challenged the detention ordering a wide ground that the Detention Act ,under which he was detained was void for violating Articles 19 and 21 and also on a narrow ground that it did comply with the requirements of Article 22.Article 22 prescribes certain procedural safeguards against it.Learned Counsel M K Nambiyar on behalf of Gopalan contended that the Detention Act 1959 violated Article 21 and was void on following grounds1.Personal liberty included the freedoms conferred by Article 19(1)(a) to (e) and (g) and the impunged act ( detention act) did not satisfy the test of Article 19(2) to (6).2.The Preventive Detention Act directly violated Gopalans right to move freely , because the freedom of movement is of essence of personal liberty.3.Article 19 (1) and 21 should be read together because Article 19 dealt with substantive rights and Article 21 dealt with procedural rights.4.The reference in Article 21 to Procedure established by law meant due process of law and the Act did not satisfy the requirements of due process of law.5.The word law in Article 21 meant not the state made law but jus naturale ,of the principles of natural justice.The law did not comply with the requirements of Natural justice[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: It will be seen that from 1 to 5 that the proposition that Article 21 applied to the Preventive Detention ,was the foundation of all the reasons,and learned Attorney General M C Seetlevad countered by contending that Article 22 was a complete code and Article 21 didnot apply to Preventive Detention law.All the questions raised some points of immense Constitutional importance and a Six Judge Bench comprising CJI H L J Kania ,Justices P .Shastri ,M C Mahajan,B K Mukherjee ,SS Das and Fazl Ali S was constituted to hear the matters .All the six judges delivered separate judgments after a lengthy hearings .Five learned judges( Fazl Ali dissenting) held that Article 19 did not apply to Preventive Detention thought the freedoms as a result of detention freedoms may be curtailed.Fazl Ali dissented and held that Preventive Detention was a direct infringement of Article 19 and was subject to Judicial review even it was narrowly construed The majority judges did not hold that Article 22 was a complete code ,so they disagreed with learned Attorney General contention and only M C Mahajan alone held Article 22 was a complete code on Preventive Detention.Fazl Ali dissented by holding that " No calamitous or untoward result would follow even if the Provisions of Penal code became justiciable".CJI Kania, and Justices Shastri, Mukherjee and SS Das held the concept of right to move freely throughout the territory of India was entirely different from the Concept of the right to personal liberty.[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: Except Justice M C Mahajan who held that Article 22 was a complete code, majority held that Articles 19 (1) and Article 21 did not operate in the same field, because Article 18 conferred rights only one citizens, article 21 conferred rights on all persons. Again if article 21 conferred only procedural rights then the most precious right the Right to life was nowhere found in our Constitution. Therefore the majority held that Article 21 also conferred substanrive rights also. It may be observed that far from holding that fundamental rights were mutually exclusive, Mukherjee held that a substantive law authorizing the deprivation of life must conform to the requirements of Article 20.[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: CJI Kania, Justices Mukherjee and SR Das held that law in Article 21 had been used in the sense of State made law and not in the embodying the Principle of Natural Justice, and Procedure established by law meant a law made by Union Parliament or by State legislatures. Justice Shastri held that the law meant Positive or state made law and did not mean jus naturale, but the procedure meant well established criminal procedure. Justice Fazl Ali dissented by holding that whatever Procedure established by law may mean, and must include 1 . Notice 2.opportunity to be heard 3.impartial tribunal 4.orderly procedure. So according to fazl Ali a positive law must include jus naturale.[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: The majority judges held that the Procedure established by law didnot mean due process of law as understood in United States of America. The report of Drafting Committe showed that the words Procedure established by law were substituted for the words without due process of law. Our founding fathers were well aware of its abuse by American judges during the New Deal period.[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: So in this case, different views were expressed by different judges, so no common points emerged on the correlation of articles 19 to 20,21 and 22 or the meaning of the expression personal liberty.[10/10/2024, 8:51 PM] Sisir Kumar Gogoi: But Justice Fazl Ali dissenting points are regarded as one of the greatest dissents of all time. Justice R Nariman paid a rich tribute to Fazl Ali foresight by saying "simply takes our breath away".

Read more